Let's get right to the critical question. Is the stomach-churning
volatility in the stock market signaling the end of the long boom in the
economy and the stock market? After all, the economy is more vulnerable
than before to shifts in the market with the value of household equity and
mutual fund holdings more than doubling over the past four years to over 11
trillion dollars.
My answer is that the economy remains strong, and the stock market
is resilient. While certain sectors of the market and economy could be hit
hard in coming months, there is a lot more going on than simply the rapid
emergence of dot-com startups. For instance, e-commerce is just beginning
to transform many old-line companies. The best way to ride the market's
inevitable storms is to own a well-diversified portfolio and to pay close
attention to your financial needs rather than let yourself be whipsawed by
Mr. Market's manic moods.
Still, Fed chairman Alan Greenspan must be cheered by the markets
gyrations. Although he denies it, Greenspan has left a strong impression
that the central bank has hiked interest rates to derail a soaring stock
market. Greenspan has openly worried that rapid increases in stock market
generated wealth had propelled consumer demand to unsustainable levels.
I'm skeptical. Greenspan and other economists have couched their
concerns in the dry equations of the so-called wealth effect, but in
essence they are saying too much wealth is bad for us. Homes are getting
bigger. The roads are clogged with SUVs. Cell phones are everywhere. Ah, I
can hear echoes of Thorsten Veblen's diatribes against conspicuous
consumption.
But what's wrong with wealth? Sure, there are pockets of
unbelievable waste among plutocrats. But that's not the story. Over the past
quarter century, many workers lost their jobs and incomes were squeezed.
Now, a record two-thirds of American own their homes, worker earnings are
at an all-time high, the democratization of credit has finally extended to
low-income workers, and all this demand is pushing business to improve
their productivity.
Fast growth and more wealth is not a cause for concern.