Thank goodness for the stock market's frightening fall on April 14th. Don't
get me wrong. No one wants more than one trillion dollars in stock market
value to vaporize in a day. And everyone was relieved when stocks returned
from the abyss. Yet the crazy swings in the market are a timely warning for
all investors. Now is a good time to review your ability to absorb
investment risk. Stocks are risky--it's in the nature of the beast.
Risk is a rich word with many shades of meaning. It hints at dangers to be
avoided, such as smoking or dashing across an eight-lane highway. But the
word also prompts stirring images of entrepreneurs starting their own
companies, immigrants moving to the U.S., and snow boarders surfing the ski
slopes with abandon. Risk means different things to different people--and
that variation should show up in investment portfolios.
One way to address the question is to take a risk tolerance test offered by
most mutual fund companies. Although there is nothing wrong with these
quizzes, I am not a big fan of them. The results are bland and not
especially informative. Far more illuminating is studying your reaction to
the recent sickening sell off in the Dow and the NASDAQ, and the market's
subsequent turbulence. How troubled were you? What did you do? You should
also think about your approach to risk in other aspects of your life. For
instance, did you seize the opportunity to leave a good job at a stable
company for a smaller, more entrepreneurial outfit? Or did you decide the
switch was too risky? The answers to questions like these should enlighten
the construction of your portfolio.
In most cases, equities should form the core of any durable
investment strategy. But whether equities make up a sliver or almost all
your long-term investment portfolio ultimately depends on your comfort
level with financial market risk. As Paul Samuelson, the Nobel laureate in
economics remarked to me several years ago during an interview, "you have
to always sell down to the sleeping point." He's right.
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