In early 1997, I wrote a commentary called "Growth Is Good." The commentary
sparked a lot of spirited criticism, ranging from my underestimating how
growth would lead to inflation to my ignorance about the environmental
damage from growth. In other words, fast economic growth was bad.
This was at a time when the economy had expanded at a 4% pace over the
previous year and the unemployment rate had slipped below 5%. Investors
feared
that inflation was about to spiral higher. Many policymakers and mainstream
economists shared a strongly held belief that the economy couldn't grow
faster than a 2%-plus pace, and unemployment drop below 6%, without ushering
in deadly inflation. Of course, as we now know, the economy continued to
grow at a 4% pace, the unemployment rate dropped to some 4%, and inflation
trended lower.
Today, we're going through another inflation scare. The reason? The
unemployment cost index had its worst showing in nine years. This time
around, no one doubts that the Fed will hike interest rates once again to
slow the economy. The only question is whether the Fed will raise rates by
a quarter-point or by a more dramatic half-point. Still, signs that
inflation may be stirring are at most a cyclical blip.
Yet the idea that too much growth is bad lingers. Over the past quarter
century, the idea took root that not only couldn't the economy grow very
fast, but also that faster economic growth wasn't all it was cracked up to
be. It couldn't alleviate poverty. It didn't raise the incomes of society's
least advantaged. And, at least according to Greenspan, fast growth
encouraged too many people to spend beyond their means.
Yet today's social and economic story is that a rising tide does lift all
boats. The wages of low-income workers are rising rapidly, and income
inequality has stopped widening. The welfare caseload has fallen by 50%.
Unemployment is at a three-decade low.
Growth is good, and the Fed should err on the side of giving a high-tech
economy room to run.
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