There is so much to discuss. How low will stocks go? Should Microsoft be
broken up? Will the Fed hike rates by half-a-point? But I want to focus
today's commentary on the pressing issue of federal deposit insurance
reform. I bet our listeners have been debating the topic at work and at the
neighborhood barbeque! Yet now, when the economy is strong and credit is
overflowing, is the time to consider ways to minimize the financial stress
that will come with an economic downturn.
The role of deposit insurance is to maintain financial stability during
troubled economic times, and it has been a very successful system. But
here's the worry: Banks are getting bigger as the industry consolidates.
Policymakers consider many of the new mega-banks as "too big to fail." In
other words, all depositors are protected from losing money during
insolvency. The danger is that the too-big-to-fail doctrine will encourage
reckless behavior at these global giants during boom times. After all, if
the gambles pay off, stockholders will pocket huge profits. But if the bets
go bad when the economy tanks, taxpayers pick up the tab. That was the
ill-fated dynamic behind the 1980s savings and loan crisis.
At a time of quicksilver technological change and rapid financial
innovation, more traditional government regulation isn't the answer.
Instead, policymakers should tap the market to better monitor management.
For example, the Minneapolis Fed proposes that large uninsured depositors
could lose up to 20% of their funds if a "too big to fail" bank becomes
insolvent. The risk of losing money would create an incentive for
sophisticated depositors to closely watch these banks, and discourage
reckless lending.
Although it isn't part of the current policy debate, federal deposit
insurance reform could extend the expansion and moderate the inevitable
downturn.
FOR OTHER INSTALLMENTS OF CHRIS' COLUMN