Investors remain skittish about the stock market's prospects, despite a spate
of good third quarter earnings reports. Those figures are already moldy with
age as investor's gossip, analyze, and debate over the direction of interest
rates.
You almost wouldn't know it for all the obsessive talk about the markets
short-term outlook, but finance history was made last week. After some two
decades of debate, the House, the Senate, and the Administration favor
sweeping
away the out-dated depression-era laws that kept separate the banking,
insurance, and securities businesses. True, each industry has been
invading the
others turf for years, but in a haphazard, piecemeal fashion. Regulation will
finally recognize that all three are essentially in the same business:
managing
society's savings.
The implications of the new law are enormous. For instance, like other
deregulated businesses, a merger frenzy of potentially unprecedented scale
and
scope is about to be unleashed in the financial services industry. Regulators
rightly worry that these new behemoths will be considered too big to fail,
encouraging their managements to throw the dice by lending recklessly
throughout the global economy. The company profits handsomely if the gambles
win, and taxpayers pick up the tab if it loses--shades of the 1980s
savings and
loan crisis.
But I want to focus on something that matters deeply to consumers right now:
fees. Will fees go higher as the financial services industry rapidly
consolidates? After all, fees have soared during the bank mergers of the
1990s,
and mutual fund companies have managed to hike their fees year after year
during the Great American Bull Market. Or will fees fall, thanks to new
efficiencies and heightened competition?
My guess is that most managements intend to raise fees, but the marketplace
won't let them. The trend is toward a world of low everyday prices.
First of all, consumers are savvier than before about their finances and
money
choices. For another, there is the Internet, an irresistible technological
force for driving prices down. Witness the impact online trading has had
on the
securities business. Commissions are plummeting as online trading goes
mainstream. It won't be long before individual investors are paying pennies
rather than dollars to trade stocks and bonds. What's more, mutual fund
companies are under growing competitive pressure to lower the cost of
ownership
or lose business to the online world.
The Internet will also make fees transparent and price comparisons easy. It
won't be long before Internet programs automatically review the fees you're
paying on everything from your checking account to your investment portfolio,
and offer you a menu of lower cost alternatives with a comparable level of
service. High cost providers will lose business to cheaper rivals.
When it comes to fees at least, the gains from merger madness among banks,
insurance companies, and Wall Street firms will boost the consumer's bottom
line.