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Chris Farrell

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Blame the Bigmouths

Why did the Nasdaq fall down and go boom? Well, it was getting pretty frothy. There was a huge bubble in a handful of internet and biotech stocks, some of which are probably done for. And the big, beautiful blue-chip techs got way ahead of themselves, as they often do. But one catalyst was the Justice Department's chest-beating about their glorious victory over Microsoft. Thank goodness we have Big Brother to protect us poor consumers. . . but what if they turn their attention to some of the other big techs? What about free markets? And then there's Alan Greenspan, jawboning the market for months, then claiming he had no intentions of doing so. So rhetoric was the match that started the big fire sale.

What changed for other tech companies when MSFT got clobbered? Nothing. Has the world economy slowed in the last couple weeks? Nope. Is our economy still strong? Yep. Are corporate earnings reports (for 200 of the S&P 500) coming out this week going to be really good? Yes again. So not much has changed in the last few weeks to change the fundamentals. Keep in mind that we've had a five-year run of incredible stock market returns, and after an 86% increase in the Nasdaq in 1999, we're only back to last November's levels. The Nasdaq closed above 4000 for the first time on December 29.

Is the Nasdaq going to recover? Yep. When? Don't know. But I do wish I had a big pile o'cash to deploy soon.




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