The Nasdaq popped up 2.8% on Thursday after a couple of really ugly weeks. The volatility has been extreme, particularly in tech stocks. The market is afraid to rally, fearing that the Fed will raise rates later this month if it thinks stocks are too high.

The business community is also afraid of a rally, and we're hearing statements from executives expressing concern about earnings and revenues in the second half of the year. We suspect that much of that fear stems from the possibility of yet another Fed rate increase whomping the economy. 65% of companies that have reported second-quarter earnings have beaten estimates. Their suppliers aren't reporting cutbacks yet. Some analysts even think that the Fed should start to cut rates.

The market will probably stay treacherous until after the Fed meeting. Good time to take a vacation.