Oracle stock got hammered last Wednesday, when it traded as low as $60. It
had been bouncing around from the high to low $80's, as high as $92, back
to the high $70's. (Nothing has changed as far as the company is concerned
during that period of time.) After dropping 11% on Tuesday, it went
straight down on Wednesday morning, but quickly recovered. Trades were
going through at breakneck speed, with most only for 100 to 400 shares.
100-million shares of ORCL traded that day. A quick check of Cisco and
Dell showed similar rapid trades, within smaller price ranges. Strike up
the theme from "Jaws": just when we thought all the day-trading sharks had
left the water, it looks like they're back. The dot.com bust taught them
that they can't all get out the door at the same time; there's no liquidity
in those kinds of stocks. So now it looks like they're trying to play the
game with the most liquid stocks of all. Could there have been a
"pump-and-dump" going on in a chat room or two?
ORCL isn't the only big tech that's been socked. To paraphrase the old
joke, a correction is when YOUR stocks go down; a bear market is when MY
stocks go down. Ain't no denying that the bear is alive and well, having
chewed up the most mighty of the big techs. It wasn't surprising when the
dot.coms went to hell. MPR's computer news feature, "Future Tense", now
plays taps as it chronicles the demise each day of still more dot.coms.
And it wasn't so surprising when the next tier of super-heated stocks, the
big-but-not-proven Amazons and Yahoos, took a dive. But now the big,
beautiful Shaquille O'Neals of the tech world have gotten creamed. Among
those down over 50% from their highs are Lucent, Dell, WorldCom, Microsoft,
and Motorola. SAP, Nokia, Intel, and Ericsson are off 30+%. The big
beauties go up too much, they go down too much.
Looking for a picture to put up on your dartboard? I nominate Alan
Greenspan.
FOR OTHER INSTALLMENTS OF ERICA'S COLUMN