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November 20, 2009
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Chris Farrell

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Just Don't Look

A friend called last Friday, after Thursday's big bloodbath, to ask if she should be "doing anything" about her investments. "I was watching TV at 1:30 this morning and two women gurus, including a big-selling author and TV celebrity, said to sell everything," she said. Dynamite investment strategy: wait until the market goes down and then sell! This is followed, of course, by wait until it goes up before you buy back in. My answer? "Don't watch financial stuff on TV at 1:30 in the morning." Unless the U.S. economy if going to straight to perdition in a handbasket, the market is way oversold. The only thing that could justify these prices is a horrible recession or killer oil supply shock. Possible, but not probable. Are American consumers back to their spendthrift ways? Retail sales soared last month, largely due to auto sales and gas prices. Is this the gasp of the SUV's as we slide into a world of very expensive gas, where the wealth effect disappears along with high stock prices? The Producer Price Index, expected to be 0.5%, surprised at 0.9%. The core rate rose an uncomfortable 0.3%.

At last! A stock that went UP 14% in nanoseconds! Gateway pleased the market with great earnings and a very rosy outlook for the rest of the year. If we have to live with unbelievable volatility, at least it's nice to know that a stock can shoot up after the blood-curdling double-digit hits stocks such as Lucent, Apple, Oracle, and Yahoo! have seen in single days.

My advice if you're queasy about the market: Just don't look. In fact, if you're sitting on cash, this may be a dazzling buying opportunity for some top-quality stocks.




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