More than anything, the stock market hates uncertainty. One thing that
does seem clear from the election, though, is that we're in for four years
of gridlock, and the thinking is that gridlock is good. The mega-issue, of
course, is the surplus (assuming we'll still have one). Neither candidate
has a plan that pleases Wall St. or the Fed, who want debt reduction. The
hope is that gridlock will keep the rascals in Washington from blowing the
surplus, and also from passing legislation that would harm the economy. At
this point any election results will be welcome.
At the edges of the market, the bond boys were rooting for Gore. Health
care stocks rallied on hopes that Bush would be the winner. But the real
impact the next President has will be more subtle that sectors bouncing
around on the stock market. The next President will appoint thousands of
new regulators and bureaucrats who will deal with antitrust, energy, trade,
health care, and environmental policies. He'll fill three Fed vacancies and,
very likely, pick a replacement for the aging Alan Greenspan. Most
significantly, he'll pick three to four Supreme Court justices who could serve for
the next 30 years.
Market-wise, expect a continuation of manic merger activity, more bond
downgrades, and a dearth of funding for companies needing it.
Great news on the inflation front. Both the PPI, less food and energy, and
import prices dropped. Consumer credit plunged, which is sure to please
the Fed.
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