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Galloping Uncertainty

More than anything, the stock market hates uncertainty. One thing that does seem clear from the election, though, is that we're in for four years of gridlock, and the thinking is that gridlock is good. The mega-issue, of course, is the surplus (assuming we'll still have one). Neither candidate has a plan that pleases Wall St. or the Fed, who want debt reduction. The hope is that gridlock will keep the rascals in Washington from blowing the surplus, and also from passing legislation that would harm the economy. At this point any election results will be welcome.

At the edges of the market, the bond boys were rooting for Gore. Health care stocks rallied on hopes that Bush would be the winner. But the real impact the next President has will be more subtle that sectors bouncing around on the stock market. The next President will appoint thousands of new regulators and bureaucrats who will deal with antitrust, energy, trade, health care, and environmental policies. He'll fill three Fed vacancies and, very likely, pick a replacement for the aging Alan Greenspan. Most significantly, he'll pick three to four Supreme Court justices who could serve for the next 30 years.

Market-wise, expect a continuation of manic merger activity, more bond downgrades, and a dearth of funding for companies needing it. Great news on the inflation front. Both the PPI, less food and energy, and import prices dropped. Consumer credit plunged, which is sure to please the Fed.




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