Pity the poor stock market. A few weeks ago I talked about the "four e's", major areas of uncertainty: election, energy, economy, euro. Just when it looked like one of the big sources of uncertainty, the election, would be settled, it wasn't. Just when it looked like OPEC was going to pump up production and target an oil price of $25/bbl, they decide there's going to be a glut next Spring when seasonal demand drops. (The fact that oil demand is seasonal is news to these guys?!) They decided that the globe is moving along just fine at current prices, which is not true, and that $30/bbl. sounds reasonable. That's kept prices up around $35. Just when us true believers thought the Fed might back off in light of a clearly slowing economy, they leave their bias against inflation unchanged, ever vigilant. And then there's the euro...

Industrial production, down 0.1%, showed a big drop in autos, but strength in computers and especially in semiconductors. The CPI rose 0.2%, meeting expectations. Most other indicators are flat or point toward economic cooling. Retailers are panicking, saying that we're cutting back on spending, but I was at a mall last weekend that was jammed with happy consumers. Maybe conspicuous, over-the-top spending is declining?