Well, this is a fine mess he's gotten us into . . . Greenspan's remarks to bank
regulators voicing concerns about whether investors are underestimating
stock market risk sent the stock market into a major swoon Friday morning.
He also grumbled about loans backed by investments, urging that risk
managers set aside more reserves. Is he thinking of the near-collapse of
Long Term Capital Management last year? I don't get it - if the Fed is
worried about the stock market's valuation and they don't want to prick the
bubble with a far-reaching interest rate increase, why don't they raise
margin requirements for brokerage accounts and pressure the heck out of the
big institutions that lend money to hedge funds? My business partner and I
suspect that he doesn't want to raise rates, so he's beating up the stock
market instead to cool things down a bit. I just wish he'd use some of the
other tools in his kit.
As I said last week, the Fed should have raised rates, period. All
Greenspan is doing is roiling a market that's bound to be awash in
uncertainty until January if only because of Y2K.
The "Greenspan drop" in the stock market was exacerbated by a big 1.1% jump
in the PPI due to tobacco and oil prices, as well as by "double witching"
day. The PPI wasn't great news, but clearly contains some aberrations. In
the meantime, the economy is just fine, thank you. And corporate earnings
look good, as I expected, but companies that disappoint get hammered. Hang
it up for the rest of the year!
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