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Tuesday, March 18, 2008

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Fed's delicate economic balancing act

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke

Between bailing out investment banks and making loans to securities dealers, Fed Chief Ben Bernanke and company have been busy lately. The big cut in short-term interest rates boosted the markets, but inflation still looms. Kai Ryssdal has the story.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke speaks during the National Community Reinvestment Coalition annual conference on March 14, 2008 in Washington, D,C. (Brendan Smialowski/Getty Images)

More on The Economy, Taxes, Wall Street

TEXT OF STORY

KAI RYSSDAL: It's been a whiz-bang couple of days for the Federal Reserve Bank of the United States. First it bails out a big Wall Street investment bank -- we told you about Bear Stearns yesterday. It's also decided to start making loans to brokerage houses and securities dealers in yet another attempt to free up the credit markets.

Used to be only big commercial banks could borrow from what's called the Fed's discount window. And then today, Mr. Bernanke and company jumped into the economic breach one more time. They cut short term interest rates just like everyone knew they would.

The only real question was how much -- Greg McBride's with BankRate.com:

Greg McBride: If the Fed had opted for a less-aggressive move, cutting rates by say half a percentage point instead of three-quarters of a percentage point, you certainly wouldn't have been greeted with the euphoria on Wall Street. The market would have taken that as a big disappointment.

Two things to mention: First, the cut was actually right at 75 basis points -- that's Wall Street talk for three-quarters of a percent. Also, the Dow was up almost 300 points when the Fed made its announcement.

There was a hiccup or two, but all three major indices ended the day gaining more than three-and-a-half percent or more. That's in spite of some not-so-promising things the Fed said about what's coming down the pike. Specifically, inflation's still a problem, but so is slowing economic growth. Again, Greg McBride:

McBride: The Fed has a delicate balancing act here between confronting the credit crunch now versus the prospect of inflation down the road.

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Marketplace Confessional

I am not buying the whole "there might not even be a recession, and if there is one, it will be brief." If oil prices continue to rise, driving inflation, the Federal Reserve will eventually be forced to raise interest rates in the middle of a slowdown. We are already seeing signs of a Japan style "liquidity trap" which is preventing the free flow of money from the banks to Main Street. I think the government's efforts to bail out the housing market will be about as effective as the response to Hurricane Katrina...

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