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Friday, March 21, 2008

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Discounts can't prevent retail pinch

Woman shopping

Off-price retailers are set to release earnings reports next week, and they may be starting to feel the pinch of recession. Sally Herships reports analysts have high hopes, but even discount retail might suffer.

Consumers walk around the Manhattan Mall in New York City. (Michael Nagel / Getty Images)

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TEXT OF STORY

Doug Krizner: The stock market says more about the future than the present. As the saying goes, think of it as a barometer, not a thermometer. And while Wall Street is trying to look past recession, Main Street is just starting to deal with it. Retail sales are falling -- but some stores are doing better than others.

This week, discounter Ross announced good earnings. More off-price retailers are set to release numbers next week. Sally Herships has more on consumers dressing for less.


Sally Herships: Americans are stretching their dollars these days.

Marc Karimzadeh of Women's Wear Daily says everyday shoppers aren't splashing out as much.

Marc Karimzadeh: If you look at the past few months, Neiman Marcus and Sax have both reported that they feel the pinch of the recession in consumer traffic. They've seen a slowdown in their stores and on the floors.

But a down market doesn't mean bad news for everyone. Analysts have high hopes for discounters like Fred's, which releases earnings next week. But off-price retailers could still suffer from tight credit tight and high gas prices.

Retail consultant Howard Davidowitz says these stores aren't recession-proof:

Howard Davidowitz: I think there's lots of discounters feeling the pain right now, and by the way that includes Target and K-Mart.

Can any part of the fashion biz catch a break? Karimzadeh of Womens Wear says accessories makers could benefit as shoppers buy belts or handbags, rather than a whole new look.

I'm Sally Herships for Marketplace.

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I am not buying the whole "there might not even be a recession, and if there is one, it will be brief." If oil prices continue to rise, driving inflation, the Federal Reserve will eventually be forced to raise interest rates in the middle of a slowdown. We are already seeing signs of a Japan style "liquidity trap" which is preventing the free flow of money from the banks to Main Street. I think the government's efforts to bail out the housing market will be about as effective as the response to Hurricane Katrina...

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