Is a high unemployment rate that bad?
Experts predict the October unemployment rate will rise to around 10%. Economics correspondent Chris Farrell talks with Bill Radke about why he'd be happy if it went even a little higher.
Economics editor Chris Farrell (American Public Media)
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TEXT OF INTERVIEW
Bill Radke: Tomorrow is when government will come out with the October unemployment rate. Experts are predicting it will rise to around 10 percent. Marketplace's economics correspondent Chris Farrell says he'd be happy if it went even a little higher. Good morning, Chris.
Chris Farrell: Good morning.
Radke: You're hoping the unemployment rate rises?
Farrell: All right now, I know that sounds cruel. And I'm not minimizing job loss or the unemployment rate, but here's why: It's the way the unemployment rate is calculated. If more people are looking for jobs, the unemployment rate goes up.
Radke: So an unemployment-rate rise could just mean people are not despairing any more. They're feeling optimistic and jumping into the pool.
Farrell: That's right. So, you lost your job. You look for work. You're officially counted as unemployed. Then after awhile you give up. You say it's not worth it, no one's returning my phone calls. They're not answering my emails. You're no longer counted in the unemployment rate. So that's why if more people start looking at the economy, and the news we've been getting, and they start looking for work, the unemployment rate goes up.
Radke: But Chris, just because people are feeling more optimistic -- if they are -- does that mean there are more jobs to be had?
Farrell: Let's hope so. Look, there are some signs that this economy is improving. Let me just run through them real quick: manufacturing, it's doing better; industrial production, it's running at a pretty healthy pace; and there was a report earlier this week that said employers announced the fewest job cuts in 17 months in October. Now, that's the fewest job cuts. That means they're still announcing jobs cuts, but again, the trend is going in the right direction.
Radke: So what are the signs we should look for that do point to hiring actually beginning to happen again?
Farrell: Well there are a couple. First of all, when we get the payroll cut number on Friday, the consensus expectation is for a job loss of 175,000. Let's hope it comes in less than that. Secondly, temp workers. Once employers feel a little more optimistic, they don't go out and higher full-time workers, they hire temps and they start working their existing work force harder. So those are some signs to look for to see that employers are actually working their workers more, and pretty soon might start hiring.
Radke: Marketplace's economics correspondent Chris Farrell, thanks.
Farrell: Thanks a lot.
Comments
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From HI, 11/07/2009
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news media is fixated with the the U-3 measure.
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Numbers confabulate only when you dial the wrong number. Hello! Is this the right number?
Total number employed was 139 million in December 007 then stopped climbing and began to sink. Rate of fall peaked out April 009 as I remember it. Would you call the number of rate of rising the first derivative? Then falling rate would be F' curve upside-down. If total employment curve were perfect cosine or sine wave then you could expect employment to begin its return bounce upward near July 2010 then return to 139 million employed by January 2013.
With teenagers 27.6 percent unemployed and men at 10.7% unemployed at the present time we all realize that conditions are approaching those of the Great Depression. Government People are probably happy to see less people *getting in the way* at work place. Probably happy to see production going up as traffic-jams disappear. But the rest of us are hoping that True Americans will open their hearts to those in need. We have to keep in mind all the things that we don't like doing. We need to delegate such things to unemployed teens. We need to reach deep into our pockets and give big tip to hard working people we encounter.
I like *do it yourself-er things*; but we need to make exception for few more months. We need to hire others more frequently and tip bigger. We need to share equipment with others who are in need. Don't clog your klunker with sodium silicate. Don't throw things away. Share!
Grazia,
A
From Atlanta, GA, 11/05/2009
If I get Mr. Farrell's point, there is a better way to get the number. Look at the U-6 numbers, which is an alternate measure of unemployment that includes the discouraged workers, part timers, ... His argument is with the fact that the news media is fixated with the the U-3 measure.
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