A false picture of world's oil reserves?
There are charges that the International Energy Agency's figures are false, and the world is much closer to running short of oil than the IEA lets on. European correspondent Stephen Beard talks with Bill Radke about those claims.
World Energy Outlook 2009 report from the International Energy Agency (worldenergyoutlook.org)
More on Oil
Links
- Audio: Why would the IEA underplay the level of oil reserves?
British Member of Parliament John Hemming, who chairs the all-party parliamentary group on peak oil and gas, talks with Bill Radke about his reaction to the charges against the IEA.
TEXT OF INTERVIEW
Bill Radke: The International Energy Agency is scheduled to release its World Energy Outlook today. Meantime there are charges this morning that the agency's figures are false. And that the world is much closer to running short of oil than the IEA lets on. That's a claim in this morning's Guardian newspaper in London. Joining us live from London now, Marketplace's Stephen Beard. Good morning.
Stephen Beard: Good morning, Bill.
Radke: Stephen, what are the details of what the Guardian is reporting?
Beard: The paper says that the IEA's reports on oil and gas reserves, which are widely followed by government's around the world, are not to be trusted. The paper says that it's spoken to a whistle-blower at the agency, a senior official speaking anonymously, and he says the agency has deliberately underplayed the rate of decline in oil and gas reserves.
Radke: And what would be the IEA's motive in doing that?
Beard: The whistle-blower says the agency has been pressured to do this by the U.S. American officials, allegedly, were afraid that the true picture of the reserves would cause panic buying, and could hit stock markets... because the world would then realize we're going to hit constraints on oil supplies much sooner than expected.
Radke: So what does the whistle-blower say about the real picture of oil reserves?
Beard: Well the IEA in its last World Outlook forecast that oil production would not peak until the year 2030, and then it would reach 105 million barrels a day, sufficient to meet anticipated demand. The whistle-blower says many people in the agency believe that is false, that the world will struggle to pump 95 million barrels a day at best. And it will reach that peak earlier than expected. I called the agency in Paris this morning. Nobody was available to comment on the Guardian's story.
Radke: OK. Marketplace's Stephen Beard joining us live from London. Thanks, Stephen.
Beard: OK Bill.
Comments
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From Toronto, ON, 11/12/2009
We need to adapt. Take a look at this article The Great Transition: http://www.scribd.com/doc/21656220/The-Great-Transition-Navigating-Social-Economic-Ecological-Change-in-Turbulent-Times
From NYC, NY, 11/12/2009
And why exactly would curtailing the use of automobiles be a bad idea?
Since thier introduction the average length of city travel has increased. They don't save time, they just waste resources, cost a lot of money, and clog up the streets.
It was oil companies that brought up and dismantled the streetcars which are a million times more efficent. We could reintroduce them and run them on renewables like wind and hydro.
See:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_American_streetcar_scandal
11/12/2009
@Martin Spechler. Rather than relying on Daniel Yergin's bought-and-paid-for-by-his-oil-industry-clients optimism, try reading Morgan Downey's "Oil 101". It puts tar sands and shale in perspective - as niche solutions and non-starters, respectively, at any price. It's not a few lefty journos at a small-circulation paper in England who will curtail your use of automobiles, it really is geology after all.
From Melbourne, FL, 11/11/2009
Yes peak oil predictions have been made in the past. Like the one that said US production peaking in 1970...and it did. Take a look around peak oil deniers.....peak oil is a reality in over 60% of the oil producing world. What makes you think that this reality will not apply to the other countries that have not reached peak yet?
From Richmond, VA, 11/11/2009
M. King Hubbert predicted in 1956 that US domestic oil production would peak in 1965-1970, and he was correct. US production has been in decline since 1970. Hubbert predicted global production would peak in the opening years of the 21st century, which is now.
From Bloomington, IN, 11/10/2009
The prediction of "peak oil" has been made and refuted by reality at least five times since the 1880's. According to Daniel Yergin in Foreign Policy (Sept.-Oct.2009, p. 95), "careful examination of the world's resource base--including my own firm's analysis of more than 800 of the largest oil fields--indicates that the resource endowment of the planet is sufficient to keep up with demand for decades to come." If and when prices rise, liquid fuels will be derived from oil shales and tars, natural gas, etc. Technology will probably also reduce the demand for oil. Left-wing sources like The Guardian are apparently interested in curtailing our use of automobiles.
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