Is it time to bail out of the stock market? With the market off some 40 percent, a growing number of individual investors are saying yes.
Sure, there are periodic rallies. But the bad news is unrelenting. Every day brings another corporate accounting abuse, often by blue chip stalwarts like Merck & Co. and Bristol-Myers Squibb. Investment forecasts of negative stock market returns for the next decade or more are commonplace. And adding to the sense of gloom and doom is the ongoing turmoil in the Middle East and continued battle against terrorism.
In other words, now may be a good time to buy stocks. No, I'm not a fan of brokerage house bromides like "markets climb a wall of worry." And yes, I know that the timing of an upturn in the market is chancy. Odds are that stocks will fall further in the weeks to come—as some of you will surely remind me.
That said, the time to start accumulating is when despair is all the rage. It is often true that, when investors focus on a major problem, the path to recovery isn't far behind. Chief executives and directors did play fast and loose with the numbers during the height of the stock market boom. But they aren't fools. It's a new environment, and corporate leaders are well aware that profitable malfeasance or even winking at skimming money expense is over. Investors are punishing the stock of any company with questionable accounting practices and rewarding conservative financial statements.
The momentum for reform is growing. The SEC is requiring CEOs and CFOs of the 1,000 largest publicly traded companies to personally sign off on all financial statements. The New York Stock Exchange proposes to increase the number of independent directors. Congress is close to passing a tough corporate crime bill, although some negotiations remain. It seems inevitable that companies will be required to expense stock options, despite the severe hit to earnings. Coca Cola, an American corporate icon, will start treating employee stock options as an expense. The Washington Post says it will follow suit. The rest of Corporate America won't be far behind.
The simplest reason to start accumulating a bigger position in stocks is also the most intriguing: It's profitable to go against the crowd. Oil billionaire J. Paul Getty advised, "Buy when everyone else is selling, and hold until everyone else is buying. This is not merely a catchy slogan. It is the very essence of successful investing." I agree. Now is the time for investment contrarians to shift some more money into stocks.