Are you depressed by the three-year slide in equities? Are you wondering if it's time to give up on your equity investments? Are you uncertain about where to invest your hard-earned money? If so, your confusion is only going to worsen, thanks to President Bush's proposal to repeal the tax investor's pay on dividends, the centerpiece of his $670 billion, 10-year tax cut.
The long-term impact on everyday personal financial planning could be dramatic if the double taxation of dividends is eliminated. For one thing, investors will take a shine to quality stocks that pay a dividend. There is a lot of room for companies to shell out more dividends to shareholders considering that over 65 percent of all public companies pay no dividend.
The mutual fund industry will design funds that maximize dividend payouts and minimize capital gains obligations. That's what has happened in Canada, where the government taxes dividends far more lightly than ordinary income.
The value of tax shelters will also diminish. Take variable annuities. Despite their popularity, variable annuities are a high-fee product. And long-term capital gains earned in a variable annuity are taxed at the much higher ordinary income rate at withdrawal.
Savers may even approach their 401(k)s, 403(b)s and comparable retirement savings plans differently. For example, investors will still pay taxes on interest income. So, it may pay to park fixed income securities in a 401(k) plan. But equity investments might do better in a taxable account with low portfolio turnover and high dividend payments. After all, dividend payments will be exempt from taxes. And, instead of withdrawals during retirement getting taxed at the ordinary income rate, which can run as high as 38.6 percent, long-term savers can cash in their gains at the much lower capital gains rate, which can't exceed 20 percent.
Of course, the Bush dividend plan is controversial. Democrats are assailing it as a massive giveaway to the rich. Many policymakers worry about a mushrooming budget deficit. The proposal could still founder despite the Republican's thin margin of power in Washington.
The bottom line: Investors shouldn't make any changes yet since we don't know what the final package will look like. But they should follow the debate closely. Stay tuned.
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