The Super Bowl: It’s the biggest game of the year. And this Sunday it’s the Oakland Raiders vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

And for those who don’t enjoy football… there are the ads.

Basketball legend Michael Jordan will be pitching for two companies…. Gatorade and Hanes…and singer Willie Nelson… who’s had his troubles with the IRS… will star in an ad for H&R Block.

But it’s investors that really sweat the Super Bowl. The reason: The Super Bowl Theory.

Let’s go to the playbook. A win by a team from the old National Football League means stocks will end the year higher. But victory to the old American Football League signals a dismal yearend close for the market. Long-time market analyst and money manager Robert Stovall devised the gridiron indicator.

Okay, anybody who actually invests real money in the stock market based on the outcome of the Super Bowl championship is confusing “x’s and o’s” with their “p’s and e’s.” Still, the predictor has been wrong only seven times out of the last 36 games. Yes, it’s a statistical anomaly. But that’s a track record most Wall Street sooth sayers would love to sport.

But here’s an additional twist, hardly surprising considering the stock market surprises we’ve suffered through these past three years. The Oakland Raiders are from the old AFL. So, if all you value is your return on investment you’ll rout for the other team, right? Well, the Bucs are in the National Football Conference. But the Bucs are an expansion team that played their first year in the American Football Conference, the successor to the AFL. So, what are the Bucs? AFL or NFL?

Anybody got a coin?

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