About this report
We are now decades, perhaps years, away from the greatest economic transformation human beings have ever seen. Society's response to climate change — whether active now or reactive later — will affect every aspect of life on Earth. But whether this is a terrific opportunity or a tragedy in the making depends a lot on who you ask.
The science is clear: the Earth's climate is changing because of the massive amounts of pollution that come from many human activities — such as the burning of fossil fuels like oil and coal, and the destruction of forests for agriculture. We're already starting to feel the effects of those changes and the situation could get very bad for life on the planet.
But climate change is also solvable.
As the United States and other nations take up domestic and international action this fall, the special interests and activists on all sides of the issue are making their cases. Science is telling us what's necessary. Politics is figuring out what's possible.
In other words, the climate race is on — and whether we, as a nation, as a global civilization, win or lose is still very much in play.
J.J. Yore
Executive Producer, Marketplace
The Southwest
Now:
- Average daily temperatures are 1.5 degrees hotter than in the 1960s and '70s.
- Declining spring snowpack and Colorado River flows.
- Beginning of water "trade-offs" pitting urban, agriculture and habitat needs against one another.
End of century:
- Average daily temperatures projected to rise 4 to 10 degrees, depending on emission levels.
- Lake Powell could be dry by 2020.
- Growth in high-elevation forests, such as California's Sierra Nevada, will decline 60% to 90%.
- Crops such as apricots, almonds, artichokes, figs, kiwis, olives and walnuts will be lost due to warmer winters.
- Increasing droughts and mega-droughts lasting 10 years or more.
(Comparisons are to baseline of average conditions from 1960-1979. Temperatures in Fahrenheit.)
The Northwest
Now:
- Average daily temperatures have risen 1.5 to 4 degrees in the last century.
- Spring snowpack is projected to be down as much as 60% in some mountain areas, 25% less in the Cascades.
- Pine Beetle outbreak affecting region's timber.
- Wild salmon populations are down 56% in their usual coastal waters, and more than 90% in the Columbia River system, due to lower streamflows from reduced snowpack.
End of century:
- Average daily temperatures projected to rise another 3 to 10 degrees by the end of this century, depending on emissions levels.
- Sea level rise could possibly inundate the south Puget Sound cities of Olympia, Tacoma and Seattle.
- Cascade Range snowpack down as much as 40% by 2040, leading to a decrease in hydroelectric power production.
- More winter flooding as snow falls as rain.
- About one-third of the habitats for salmon and other coldwater fish will no longer be suitable for them by 2090 due to rising water temperatures.
(Comparisons are to baseline of average conditions from 1960-1979. Temperatures in Fahrenheit.)
The Great Plains
Now:
- Average daily temperatures have increased roughly 1.5 degrees since the 1960s and '70s.
- Cold days are less frequent, hot days more frequent.
- Precipitation has increased over most of the area, especially in the north.
End of century:
- Average daily temperatures increasing 2.5 to 13 degrees depending on future emissions of heat-trapping gases.
- Increased precipitation in region's northern areas, lower precipitation in southern areas.
- More frequent extreme events such as heat waves, droughts, and heavy rainfall.
- Heat and rainfall changes add more stress to already overtaxed water sources.
- Agriculture and ranching lands already under pressure due to an increasingly limited water supply are very likely to be stressed by rising temperatures and droughts.
- Pests historically unable to survive the region's cooler areas are projected to spread northward.
(Comparisons are to baseline of average conditions from 1960-1979. Temperatures in Fahrenheit.)
The Midwest
Now:
- Increased average temperatures in recent decades, especially in winter.
- Frost-free season has become longer by more than a week
- Heavy downpours are twice as frequent as a century ago.
- Summer and winter precipitation has been above average in the last three decades, compared to 1960s and '70s.
- Two record-breaking floods within the past 15 years.
- More frequent heat waves.
End of century:
- Major heatwaves two to three times every year, depending on emissions levels.
- Increased air pollution, provoking more respiratory problems, especially for young and old.
- Increased likelihood of drought, especially in summer.
- More winter and spring precipitation, with more heavy downpours and increased flooding risks.
- Great Lakes water levels to fall 1 to 2 feet by century's end, depending on emission levels.
- Insects historically controlled by cold winters will more easily survive and produce larger populations.
(Comparisons are to baseline of average conditions from 1960-1979. Temperatures in Fahrenheit.)
The Northeast
Now:
- Average daily temperature 2 degrees higher, with more days above 90 degrees. Winter temperatures 4 degrees higher.
- Longer growing season.
- Increased periods of heavy precipitation -- in winter less as snow, more as rain.
- Earlier breakup of winter ice on lakes and rivers.
- Earlier spring snowmelt and breakup of winter ice on lakes and rivers, resulting in earlier peak river flows.
- Rising sea level and sea surface temperatures.
End of century:
- Projected temperature rise of 2.5 to 4 degrees in winter, 1.5 to 3.5 degrees in summer.
- Snow season cut in half across the north, to one or two weeks in the south.
- Cities will have 20 to 30 summer days above 100 degrees.
- One- to three-month droughts as often as once a summer across New England.
- Summer weather will arrive three weeks earlier and last three weeks longer.
- Agricultural production, including dairy, fruit and maple syrup to be adversely affected.
- More frequent severe flooding due to sea-level rise and heavy downpours.
(Comparisons are to baseline of average conditions from 1960-1979. Temperatures in Fahrenheit.)
The Southeast
Now:
- Average daily temperature about 2 degrees higher with the greatest increase in winter.
- Days below freezing (32 degrees) reduced to four to seven per year.
- Average fall precipitation 30% higher since 1901, with the exception of South Florida.
- Moderate to severe droughts in spring and summer have increased 12% and 14%, respectively.
- Destructive potential of hurricanes has increased since 1970, due to an increase in sea surface temperature.
End of century:
- Average temperatures to increase from 4.5 to 9 degrees by 2080, depending on CO2 emission levels.
- Gulf Coast states will get less rainfall in winter and spring.
- Higher temperatures and more severe droughts are likely to trigger more water loss from soil and plants.
- Hurricanes' intensity will likely increase with higher wind speeds, heavier rainfall, and stronger storm surges.
- More coastal flooding and erosion from sea level rise of 2 feet or more.
- Decline in agricultural production as average temperatures rise and days above 90 degrees increase.
- Decreased water availability due to increased temperatures and longer periods of time between rainfall events.
(Comparisons are to baseline of average conditions from 1960-1979. Temperatures in Fahrenheit.)
Islands
Now:
- Average daily temperatures are 1 degree warmer for the Pacific Islands, and 0.8 degree warmer in the Caribbean, than 30 years ago.
- Coral reefs are declining and ocean "dead zones" are increasing.
End of century:
- Heavier and more frequent typhoons and hurricanes through the end of the century.
- Sea-level rise and higher storm tides could inundate coastlines.
- Some island freshwater supplies may be at risk due to decreasing rain and tidal inundation.
(Comparisons are to baseline of average conditions from 1960-1979. Temperatures in Fahrenheit.)
Alaska
Now:
- Warming at twice the rate of lower 48 United States.
- Average daily temperatures are 3.4 degrees warmer than 50 years ago, winter days 6.4 degrees warmer.
- Sinkholes created by melting permafrost are damaging roads, buildings and other infrastructure.
- Earlier spring melting is affecting transportation on ice roads and creating widespread glacier retreat.
End of century:
- Average daily temperatures could rise as much as 13 degrees by 2090.
- Increased opportunities for resource extraction due to reduction of Arctic Sea ice.
- Increased infrastructure damage due to melting permafrost, as much as $7.6 billion by 2080.
(Comparisons are to baseline of average conditions from 1960-1979. Temperatures in Fahrenheit.)
Expert Views:
Scientists studying climate change discuss the impacts we will experience as the Earth continues to heat up.
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Listen
Robert Socolow
Carbon Mitigation Initiative
Investing in change
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Listen
Jonathan Patz
Center for Sustainability and the Global Environment
Public health
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Listen
Michael Hanemann
California Climate Change Center
Agricultural production
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Listen
Stephen Schneider
Woods Institute for the Environment
Rising temperatures
Stories
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Part 1
Marketplace sustainability reporters Sam Eaton and Sarah Gardner discuss the radical changes Americans are seeing to their surroundings as temperatures rise and nature changes from global warming.
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Part 2
Earth has come through many severe climate changes over thousands of years. But humans never influenced those changes as much as today, nor have we had as much to lose. Sam Eaton and Sarah Gardner tell us about climate past, present and future.
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Part 3
If global warming's worst effects are to be averted, new energy sources must be developed on a massive scale. But there will be winners and losers in that process. Sarah Gardner and Sam Eaton take us to two locales with stakes in America's energy future.
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Part 4
Even if we develop all the renewable energy we need, Earth will still warm more than it ever has in the history of mankind. Sam Eaton and Sarah Gardner look at how governments and businesses are planning to adapt to changes in our environment.
Resources:
Ten of the best scientific papers and reports on the effects of climate change, as chosen by Marketplace's Sustainability Desk.
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Compiled over five years by the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association, this report is the go-to source on how climate change is already affecting the United States, including forecasts for how it could get much worse. PROS: Very readable, great graphics. CONS: Must pay careful attention to footnotes to get to the real science.
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The U.N.'s IPCC is the world's foremost authority on global climate change. Its report covers everything from coastlines to cloud cover, from observed changes to forecasts far in the future. PROS: Thousands of the world's top scientists have reviewed and approved this document. CONS: Thousands of the world's politicians have also approved this document, leading to criticism that the IPCC soft pedals its most damning conclusions.
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This blog written and moderated by some of the United States' top climate scientists provides a window into the climate research controversies, as well as a beginner's guide to the most current scientific research. PROS: Straight from the horse's mouth. CONS: Takes a good amount of background to fully understand. Hint: Don't miss their "start here" link at the top-right.
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A major new scientific paper reports that the atmosphere's CO2 levels are at their highest concentrations in more than 15 million years. PROS: Shocking conclusions about the mid-Miocene period 10-16 million years ago. CONS: No conclusions for what higher CO2 levels mean for us today. Also, there is a $15 charge to see it.
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The National Science Foundation funded a group of scientists to examine where they see climate change globally and to piece together the science that explains what climate change is. PROS: Easy to understand. CONS: Maybe a bit too basic for you.
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The World Bank repository for energy, finance and climate change. It links the science with money. PROS: Tries to find a "win-win" solution for developed and developing economies. CONS: May be a complete fantasy.
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The U.N. World Health Organization's attempt to define research and field priorities as climate change becomes a human health issue. For example, changes to pest habitats could lead to the spreading of major diseases. PROS: Gives a window into how a changing climate can affect human populations in unforeseen ways. CONS: Largely speculative.
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The amount of sea ice in the arctic is an "early warning" to the severity of current climate change effects. PROS: Easily measured and understood impact. CONS: No real scientific link to other global warming "hot spots."
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A comprehensive report by The Rocky Mountain Climate Organization and the Natural Resources Defense Council. It highlights how climate change is affecting and could affect the America's national parks. PROS: Highlights by park and by resource. Shocking. CONS: Funded by environmental advocacy groups rather than nonpartisan scientific research organizations.
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A BBC-sponsored report by prominent British scientists on how climate models work. PROS: Very basic guide to understand how and why climate models do and don't work. CONS: Doesn't include criticism of climate models' efficacy (of which there is a lot).
